Live prediction market odds for World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
Polymarket / Predict.fun
2026-08-20
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
Argentina leads the “World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer” event at 27.5% implied probability. Other contenders include France (15.5%), and Brazil (3.6%). A 27.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Predict.fun). Argentina leads at 28% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include France at 29%, Brazil at 5%.
Argentina currently leads at 28% implied probability. Behind Argentina, France at 29% and Brazil at 5% are the next closest contenders. The 27.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Predict.fun: Argentina: 30¢ on Polymarket. France: 29¢ on Polymarket. Brazil: 5¢ on Polymarket. The 27.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 28¢ means the market estimates a 28% probability that Argentina will be the outcome. Buying one share at 28¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 257% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Argentina
27.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.funThis market resolves to the nation represented by the player who finishes as the top goalscorer across all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the nation represented by the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nationality of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by FIFA or any participating teams. Any references to FIFA or related events are for informational purposes only.
