Live prediction market odds for World Cup: Nation to Reach Final. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion and Predict.fun.
Polymarket / Opinion / Predict.fun
2026-07-20
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
Colombia leads the “World Cup: Nation to Reach Final” event at 29.1% implied probability. Other contenders include Argentina (14.3%), France (27.5%), Sweden (26.1%), and Scotland (26.1%). A 49.6% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
World Cup: Nation to Reach Final is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun). Colombia leads at 29% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Argentina at 29%, France at 36%, Sweden at 2%.
Colombia currently leads at 29% implied probability. Behind Colombia, Argentina at 29% and France at 36% and Sweden at 2% are the next closest contenders. The 49.6% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun: Colombia: 6¢ on Polymarket. Argentina: 29¢ on Polymarket. France: 36¢ on Polymarket. Sweden: 2¢ on Polymarket. The 49.6% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 29¢ means the market estimates a 29% probability that Colombia will be the outcome. Buying one share at 29¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 245% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Colombia
29.1% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Opinion and Predict.fun.
OpinionThis market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Predict.funThis market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by FIFA or any participating teams. Any references to FIFA or related events are for informational purposes only.
