Live prediction market odds for World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
Polymarket / Predict.fun
2026-07-13
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
Argentina leads the “World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals” event at 45.3% implied probability. Other contenders include France (41.8%), Spain (34.3%), Brazil (20.8%), and Portugal (20.6%). A 28.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Predict.fun). Argentina leads at 45% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include France at 51%, Spain at 49%, Brazil at 29%.
Argentina currently leads at 45% implied probability. Behind Argentina, France at 51% and Spain at 49% and Brazil at 29% are the next closest contenders. The 28.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Predict.fun: Argentina: 60¢ on Polymarket. France: 51¢ on Polymarket. Spain: 49¢ on Polymarket. Brazil: 29¢ on Polymarket. The 28.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 45¢ means the market estimates a 45% probability that Argentina will be the outcome. Buying one share at 45¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 122% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Argentina
45.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.funThis market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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