Live prediction market odds for World Cup: Worst-Placed Host Nation. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
Polymarket / Predict.fun
2026-08-03
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
Canada leads the “World Cup: Worst-Placed Host Nation” event at 22.1% implied probability, followed by USA at 8.8%. A 43.9% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
World Cup: Worst-Placed Host Nation is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Predict.fun). Canada leads at 22% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include USA at 18%.
Canada currently leads at 22% implied probability. Behind Canada, USA at 18% are the next closest contenders. The 43.9% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Predict.fun: Canada: 44¢ on Polymarket. USA: 18¢ on Polymarket. The 43.9% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 22¢ means the market estimates a 22% probability that Canada will be the outcome. Buying one share at 22¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 355% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Canada
22.1% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.funThis market will resolve in favor of the host nation (Canada, Mexico, United States) that is eliminated at the earliest stage (places lowest) in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If there is a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that recorded fewer total wins through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that scored fewer total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the nation that conceded more total goals through all main tournament rounds. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the worst-placed Host nation cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
