Live prediction market odds for Ecuador vs. Mexico. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-30
Ecuador vs. Mexico — FIFA World Cup game scheduled for 2026-06-30. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Mexico leads the “Ecuador vs. Mexico” event at 43.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Draw (33.0%), and Ecuador (25.5%). Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread.
Ecuador vs. Mexico is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Mexico leads at 44% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Draw at 33%, Ecuador at 26%.
Mexico currently leads at 44% implied probability. Behind Mexico, Draw at 33% and Ecuador at 26% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Mexico: 44¢ on Kalshi, 43¢ on Polymarket. Draw: 33¢ on Kalshi, 33¢ on Polymarket. Ecuador: 26¢ on Kalshi, 25¢ on Polymarket. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 44¢ means the market estimates a 44% probability that Mexico will be the outcome. Buying one share at 44¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 127% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Mexico
43.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Mexico wins the Mexico vs Ecuador professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 30, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Mexico vs Ecuador professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 30, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties). If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
PolymarketIn the upcoming game, scheduled for June 30, 2026 If Mexico wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
