Live prediction market odds for Elise Mertens vs. Naomi Osaka. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-23
Elise Mertens vs. Naomi Osaka — WTA Tennis match scheduled for 2026-06-23. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Naomi Osaka leads the “Elise Mertens vs. Naomi Osaka” event at 53.5% implied probability, followed by Elise Mertens at 47.5%. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread.
Elise Mertens vs. Naomi Osaka is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Naomi Osaka leads at 54% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Elise Mertens at 48%.
Naomi Osaka currently leads at 54% implied probability. Behind Naomi Osaka, Elise Mertens at 48% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Naomi Osaka: 54¢ on Kalshi, 53¢ on Polymarket. Elise Mertens: 48¢ on Kalshi, 47¢ on Polymarket. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 54¢ means the market estimates a 54% probability that Naomi Osaka will be the outcome. Buying one share at 54¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 85% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Elise Mertens wins the Osaka vs Mertens professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Bad Homburg Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Osaka vs Mertens professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Bad Homburg Round Of 16 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Elise Mertens in the Bad Homburg Open, originally scheduled for June 23, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if Naomi Osaka advances against Elise Mertens. This market will resolve to 'Elise Mertens' if Elise Mertens advances against Naomi Osaka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Naomi Osaka
53.5% avg
