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Live prediction market odds for Madison Keys vs. Jessica Pegula. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Madison Keys vs. Jessica Pegula

2026-06-19

About This Market

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Madison Keys vs. Jessica Pegula — WTA Tennis match scheduled for 2026-06-19. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Jessica Pegula leads the “Madison Keys vs. Jessica Pegula” event at 57.3% implied probability, followed by Madison Keys at 42.8%. A 1.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
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Live Markets

2 platforms
JP
Jessica Pegula
57% Avg
Kalshi57¢
Polymarket58¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
56.5%56¢57¢43¢44¢
PolymarketPolymarket
57.0%56¢58¢42¢44¢
MK
Madison Keys
43% Avg
Kalshi45¢
Polymarket44¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
43.5%42¢45¢55¢58¢
PolymarketPolymarket
43.0%42¢44¢56¢58¢

Frequently Asked Questions

What is "Madison Keys vs. Jessica Pegula" and why does it matter?

Madison Keys vs. Jessica Pegula is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Jessica Pegula leads at 57% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Madison Keys at 43%.

What is moving the odds on "Madison Keys vs. Jessica Pegula"?

Jessica Pegula currently leads at 57% implied probability. Behind Jessica Pegula, Madison Keys at 43% are the next closest contenders. A 1.5% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.

What are the current odds for "Madison Keys vs. Jessica Pegula" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Jessica Pegula: 57¢ on Kalshi, 58¢ on Polymarket. Madison Keys: 44¢ on Kalshi, 42¢ on Polymarket. The 1.5% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.

What does it mean that Jessica Pegula is at 57%?

A price of 57¢ means the market estimates a 57% probability that Jessica Pegula will be the outcome. Buying one share at 57¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 75% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats

Market Rulebook: Madison Keys vs. Jessica Pegula

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Jessica Pegula wins the Pegula vs Keys professional tennis match in the 2026 Berlin Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Pegula vs Keys professional tennis match in the 2026 Berlin Quarterfinal after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys in the Grass Court Championships, originally scheduled for June 19, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jessica Pegula' if Jessica Pegula advances against Madison Keys. This market will resolve to 'Madison Keys' if Madison Keys advances against Jessica Pegula. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
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Spread1.5%
Platforms2
Candidates2
Leader

Jessica Pegula

57.3% avg