Live prediction market odds for Naomi Osaka vs. Aryna Sabalenka. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-27
This market resolved on 2026-04-27. Aryna Sabalenka was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Naomi Osaka vs. Aryna Sabalenka — WTA Tennis match held on 2026-04-27. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Aryna SabalenkaWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Naomi Osaka | 1% | 0% |
Naomi Osaka vs. Aryna Sabalenka was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Aryna Sabalenka led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Naomi Osaka at 1%.
Aryna Sabalenka held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Aryna Sabalenka, Naomi Osaka at 1% were the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Aryna Sabalenka: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Naomi Osaka: 1¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Aryna Sabalenka would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Aryna Sabalenka wins the Sabalenka vs Osaka professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Madrid Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Sabalenka vs Osaka professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Madrid Round Of 16 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aryna Sabalenka' if Aryna Sabalenka advances against Naomi Osaka. This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if Naomi Osaka advances against Aryna Sabalenka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Aryna Sabalenka
99.5% avg
