Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the AZ-01 Republican nominee?

Accepted Answer

Odds can be affected by candidate fundraising, polling data, and endorsements. Additionally, shifts in voter demographics and local issues may play a significant role.

Question 2

When is the election for the AZ-01 Republican nominee?

Accepted Answer

The election for the AZ-01 Republican nominee is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This date is critical for candidates to secure their positions ahead of the general election.

Question 3

How does the AZ-01 race fit into the larger electoral landscape?

Accepted Answer

The AZ-01 race is part of a broader strategy for Republicans aiming to regain control of the House. Success in this district could signal shifting political dynamics in Arizona and beyond.

Question 4

What is "AZ-01 Republican nominee?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

AZ-01 Republican nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Jay Feely leads at 75% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Joseph Chaplik at 12%, Jason Duey at 4%, Todd Graham at 3%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "AZ-01 Republican nominee?"?

Accepted Answer

Jay Feely currently leads at 75% implied probability. Behind Jay Feely, Joseph Chaplik at 12% and Jason Duey at 4% and Todd Graham at 3% are the next closest contenders. The 5.2% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "AZ-01 Republican nominee?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Jay Feely: 77¢ on Kalshi, 73¢ on Polymarket. Joseph Chaplik: 14¢ on Kalshi, 9¢ on Polymarket. Jason Duey: 2¢ on Kalshi, 7¢ on Polymarket. Todd Graham: 1¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. The 5.2% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Jay Feely is at 75%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 75¢ means the market estimates a 75% probability that Jay Feely will be the outcome. Buying one share at 75¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 33% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	77.0%	75¢	79¢	21¢	25¢
Polymarket	72.5%	71¢	74¢	26¢	29¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	15.5%	14¢	17¢	83¢	86¢
Polymarket	9.5%	5¢	14¢	86¢	95¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.5%	0¢	3¢	97¢	100¢
Polymarket	7.0%	1¢	13¢	87¢	99¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.5%	0¢	3¢	97¢	100¢
Polymarket	5.5%	1¢	10¢	90¢	99¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.0%	0¢	4¢	97¢	100¢
Polymarket	3.0%	1¢	5¢	95¢	99¢

AZ-01 Republican nominee?

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Market Rulebook: AZ-01 Republican nominee?