Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the AZ-01 Republican nominee?

Accepted Answer

Odds can be affected by candidate fundraising, polling data, and endorsements. Additionally, shifts in voter demographics and local issues may play a significant role.

Question 2

When is the election for the AZ-01 Republican nominee?

Accepted Answer

The election for the AZ-01 Republican nominee is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This date is critical for candidates to secure their positions ahead of the general election.

Question 3

How does the AZ-01 race fit into the larger electoral landscape?

Accepted Answer

The AZ-01 race is part of a broader strategy for Republicans aiming to regain control of the House. Success in this district could signal shifting political dynamics in Arizona and beyond.

Question 4

What is "AZ-01 Republican nominee?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

AZ-01 Republican nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Jay Feely leads at 77% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Joseph Chaplik at 5%, Kari Lake at 4%, Jason Duey at 3%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "AZ-01 Republican nominee?"?

Accepted Answer

Jay Feely currently leads at 77% implied probability. Behind Jay Feely, Joseph Chaplik at 5% and Kari Lake at 4% and Jason Duey at 3% are the next closest contenders. The 6.8% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "AZ-01 Republican nominee?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Jay Feely: 78¢ on Kalshi, 76¢ on Polymarket. Joseph Chaplik: 5¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. Kari Lake: 4¢ on Kalshi, 4¢ on Polymarket. Jason Duey: 2¢ on Kalshi, 4¢ on Polymarket. The 6.8% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Jay Feely is at 77%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 77¢ means the market estimates a 77% probability that Jay Feely will be the outcome. Buying one share at 77¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 30% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	76.0%	74¢	78¢	22¢	26¢
Polymarket	75.5%	75¢	76¢	24¢	25¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	3.0%	1¢	5¢	95¢	99¢
Polymarket	5.0%	3¢	7¢	93¢	97¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.0%	0¢	4¢	96¢	100¢
Polymarket	4.0%	3¢	5¢	95¢	97¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.0%	0¢	2¢	98¢	100¢
Polymarket	3.5%	0¢	7¢	93¢	100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	9.5%	8¢	11¢	89¢	92¢
Polymarket	3.0%	0¢	6¢	94¢	100¢

AZ-01 Republican nominee?

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