About This Market
SharePolymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Republican nominee in Arizona's 1st Congressional District ahead of the 2026 elections. This contest is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in the House of Representatives and reflect broader national trends in voter sentiment.
Jay Feely leads the “AZ-01 Republican nominee” event at 72.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Joseph Chaplik (24.3%), Gina Swoboda (0.7%), Todd Graham (0.7%), and Kari Lake (0.7%). A 2.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
