Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the AZ-01 Republican nominee?

Accepted Answer

Odds can be affected by candidate fundraising, polling data, and endorsements. Additionally, shifts in voter demographics and local issues may play a significant role.

Question 2

When is the election for the AZ-01 Republican nominee?

Accepted Answer

The election for the AZ-01 Republican nominee is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This date is critical for candidates to secure their positions ahead of the general election.

Question 3

How does the AZ-01 race fit into the larger electoral landscape?

Accepted Answer

The AZ-01 race is part of a broader strategy for Republicans aiming to regain control of the House. Success in this district could signal shifting political dynamics in Arizona and beyond.

Question 4

What is "AZ-01 Republican nominee?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

AZ-01 Republican nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Jay Feely leads at 73% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Joseph Chaplik at 57%, Jason Duey at 2%, Matt Gress at 0%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "AZ-01 Republican nominee?"?

Accepted Answer

Jay Feely currently leads at 73% implied probability. Behind Jay Feely, Joseph Chaplik at 57% and Jason Duey at 2% and Matt Gress at 0% are the next closest contenders. The 46.7% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "AZ-01 Republican nominee?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Jay Feely: 69¢ on Kalshi, 78¢ on Polymarket. Joseph Chaplik: 34¢ on Kalshi, 81¢ on Polymarket. Jason Duey: 1¢ on Kalshi, 3¢ on Polymarket. Matt Gress: 0¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. The 46.7% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Jay Feely is at 73%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 73¢ means the market estimates a 73% probability that Jay Feely will be the outcome. Buying one share at 73¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 37% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	66.5%	63¢	70¢	30¢	37¢
Polymarket	77.5%	74¢	81¢	19¢	26¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	30.0%	26¢	34¢	66¢	74¢
Polymarket	80.5%	75¢	86¢	14¢	25¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	3.5%	1¢	6¢	94¢	100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	0.0%	0¢	0¢	100¢	100¢

AZ-01 Republican nominee?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Jay Feely

About Jason Duey

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: AZ-01 Republican nominee?

Historical Track Record

Republican nominee for AZ-05 in 2026?