Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?

Accepted Answer

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and fundraising efforts significantly impact the odds. Additionally, public sentiment and key issues in the state can sway predictions.

Question 2

When is the primary election for the Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?

Accepted Answer

The primary election is scheduled for May 19, 2026. This date is critical as it determines which candidate will represent the Democratic Party in the general election.

Question 3

How do prediction markets work for political events like this?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on the likelihood of specific outcomes. Prices reflect collective beliefs about the probability of candidates winning the nomination.

Question 4

What is "Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Georgia Democratic Governor nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Keisha Lance Bottoms leads at 78% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Jason Esteves at 20%, Geoff Duncan at 4%, Mike Thurmond at 0%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?"?

Accepted Answer

Keisha Lance Bottoms currently leads at 78% implied probability. Behind Keisha Lance Bottoms, Jason Esteves at 20% and Geoff Duncan at 4% and Mike Thurmond at 0% are the next closest contenders. The 6.3% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt: Keisha Lance Bottoms: 78¢ on Kalshi, 79¢ on Polymarket, 78¢ on PredictIt. Jason Esteves: 21¢ on Kalshi, 20¢ on Polymarket. Geoff Duncan: 3¢ on Kalshi, 2¢ on Polymarket, 8¢ on PredictIt. Mike Thurmond: 0¢ on Kalshi, 1¢ on Polymarket. The 6.3% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Keisha Lance Bottoms is at 78%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 78¢ means the market estimates a 78% probability that Keisha Lance Bottoms will be the outcome. Buying one share at 78¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 28% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	77.5%	77¢	78¢	22¢	23¢
Polymarket	78.5%	78¢	79¢	21¢	22¢
PredictIt	77.5%	66¢	89¢	11¢	34¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	20.0%	19¢	21¢	79¢	81¢
Polymarket	19.5%	19¢	20¢	80¢	81¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	3.5%	3¢	4¢	96¢	97¢
Polymarket	1.5%	1¢	2¢	98¢	99¢
PredictIt	7.0%	6¢	8¢	92¢	94¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.0%	0¢	2¢	98¢	100¢
Polymarket	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	0.0%	0¢	0¢	100¢	100¢

Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?

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Market Rulebook: Georgia Democratic Governor nominee?