Live prediction market odds for Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-30
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the Hungary Parliamentary Election scheduled for April 30, 2026. This election will determine the composition of the National Assembly, influencing domestic policies and Hungary's position within the European Union.
TISZA is priced at 73.0% implied probability for the “Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner” event. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread.
The election will determine the majority party in Hungary's National Assembly, which influences legislative decisions. Changes in government can affect economic policies, social issues, and Hungary's relationship with the EU.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of the election outcome. Prices fluctuate based on news, polling data, and public sentiment leading up to the election.
Results are expected to be announced shortly after the polls close on April 30, 2026. However, final official results may take longer due to the counting process and potential challenges.
Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). TISZA leads at 73% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
TISZA currently leads at 73% implied probability. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
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TISZA
73.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf TISZA wins the 2026 Hungary parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes.
For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.
