Live prediction market odds for Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-30
This market resolved on 2026-04-30. TISZA was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the Hungary Parliamentary Election held on April 30, 2026. This election will determine the composition of the National Assembly, influencing domestic policies and Hungary's position within the European Union.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
TISZAWINNER | 100% | 100% |
DK | 0% | 50% |
Prediction Market Track Record
The election will determine the majority party in Hungary's National Assembly, which influences legislative decisions. Changes in government can affect economic policies, social issues, and Hungary's relationship with the EU.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of the election outcome. Prices fluctuate based on news, polling data, and public sentiment leading up to the election.
Results are expected to be announced shortly after the polls close on April 30, 2026. However, final official results may take longer due to the counting process and potential challenges.
Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). TISZA led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include DK at 25%.
TISZA held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind TISZA, DK at 25% were the next closest contenders. The 49.9% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf DK wins the 2026 Hungary parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes.
For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.
PolymarketParliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
TISZA
99.8% avg
