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Live prediction market odds for Michigan Republican Senate nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt

Michigan Republican Senate nominee?

2026-08-04

About This Market

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Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the Michigan Republican Senate nominee for the 2026 election. This race is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in the Senate and reflect voter sentiment in Michigan leading up to the election.

Mike Rogers leads the “Michigan Republican Senate nominee” event at 94.6% implied probability. Other contenders include Kent Benham (1.9%), Bernadette Smith (1.6%), Genevieve Scott (1.1%), and Fred Heurtebise (1.1%). A 4.2% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

3 platforms
MR
Mike RogersARB
94% Avg
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket94¢
PredictIt93¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
97.0%96¢98¢2¢4¢
PolymarketPolymarket
93.5%93¢94¢6¢7¢
PredictItPredictIt
92.5%92¢93¢7¢8¢
KB
Kent Benham
2% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.0%1¢5¢96¢99¢
BS
Bernadette Smith
2% Avg
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%0¢4¢96¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.0%0¢2¢98¢100¢
GS
Genevieve Scott
1% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.0%0¢2¢98¢100¢
FH
Fred Heurtebise
1% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.5%0¢3¢97¢100¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Mike Rogers

Mike Rogers is a U.S. Representative from Michigan who has served in Congress since 2001. He previously chaired the House Intelligence Committee and is known for his national security expertise. Rogers entered the 2024 Michigan Senate race as the Republican frontrunner after retiring from Congress.

Prediction Market Track Record

Republican nominee for Governor in Michigan in 2026?LOSTPre-event: 0%

About Bernadette Smith

Bernadette Smith is a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate from Michigan, challenging Mike Rogers in the 2026 election. She previously served as co-chair of the Michigan Republican Party until her resignation in November 2025. Smith is running to represent Michigan's interests in the U.S. Senate.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Michigan Republican Senate nominee?

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and campaign fundraising efforts significantly impact the odds. Additionally, shifts in voter sentiment and national political trends can also play a role.

How do prediction markets determine the likelihood of candidates winning?

Prediction markets aggregate bets placed by participants, reflecting their expectations of outcomes. Prices fluctuate based on new information and market sentiment, providing a real-time assessment of candidate viability.

Why is the Michigan Senate race considered important?

The outcome of the Michigan Senate race could be pivotal in determining the majority control of the Senate. Given Michigan's political landscape, it serves as a key battleground state in national elections.

What is "Michigan Republican Senate nominee?" and why does it matter?

Michigan Republican Senate nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Mike Rogers leads at 95% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Kent Benham at 2%, Bernadette Smith at 2%, Genevieve Scott at 1%.

What is moving the odds on "Michigan Republican Senate nominee?"?

Mike Rogers currently leads at 95% implied probability. Behind Mike Rogers, Kent Benham at 2% and Bernadette Smith at 2% and Genevieve Scott at 1% are the next closest contenders. The 4.2% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread4.2%
Platforms3
Candidates5
Leader

Mike Rogers

94.6% avg

Market Rulebook: Michigan Republican Senate nominee?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Kent Benham wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Republican nominee for Governor in Michigan in 2026?

Resolved

2026-05-01

LOSTMike Rogers
Pre-event: 0%
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?