Live prediction market odds for NFL Draft 2026: First Overall Pick. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-25
This market resolved on 2026-04-25. Fernando Mendoza was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the NFL Draft 2026's First Overall Pick. This event is pivotal for franchises as it sets the tone for team rebuilding and can significantly impact future seasons based on the talent selected.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Fernando MendozaWINNER | 99% | 99% |
Aidan Chiles | 1% | 50% |
Caleb Lomu | 1% | 50% |
Carson Beck |
Prediction Market Track Record
Odds are influenced by player performances in college football, team needs, and expert analyses. Additionally, injuries and combine results can sway predictions leading up to the draft.
The NFL Draft allows teams to acquire new talent, which can reshape their roster and future performance. A high draft pick often signifies a team's intent to rebuild or strengthen key positions.
The NFL Draft 2026 is scheduled for April 25, 2026. This annual event is crucial for teams looking to enhance their competitiveness through new talent.
NFL Draft 2026: First Overall Pick was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Fernando Mendoza led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Aidan Chiles at 26%, Caleb Lomu at 26%, Carson Beck at 26%.
Fernando Mendoza held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Fernando Mendoza, Aidan Chiles at 26% and Caleb Lomu at 26% and Carson Beck at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Jayden Maiava is selected as the Pro Football First overall pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis is a polymarket to predict which player is drafted #1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft. If the listed player is drafted first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2026 NFL Draft is canceled or not completed by July 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| 50% |
Conner Weigman | 1% | 50% |
Dante Moore | 1% | 50% |
Drew Allar | 1% | 50% |
Jalon Daniels | 1% | 50% |
Jayden Maiava | 1% | 50% |
John Mateer | 1% | 50% |
Kyron Drones | 1% | 50% |
Miller Moss | 1% | 50% |
Nico Iamaleava | 1% | 50% |
Raylen Wilson | 1% | 50% |
Sam Leavitt | 1% | 50% |
T.J. Parker | 1% | 50% |
Taylen Green | 1% | 50% |
Arvell Reese | 1% | 20% |
Fernando Mendoza
99.2% avg
