Live prediction market odds for NFL Draft 2026: First Overall Pick. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-25
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the NFL Draft 2026's First Overall Pick. This event is pivotal for franchises as it sets the tone for team rebuilding and can significantly impact future seasons based on the talent selected.
Fernando Mendoza leads the “NFL Draft 2026: First Overall Pick” event at 99.3% implied probability, followed by Arvell Reese at 5.5%. A 9.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are influenced by player performances in college football, team needs, and expert analyses. Additionally, injuries and combine results can sway predictions leading up to the draft.
The NFL Draft allows teams to acquire new talent, which can reshape their roster and future performance. A high draft pick often signifies a team's intent to rebuild or strengthen key positions.
The NFL Draft 2026 is scheduled for April 25, 2026. This annual event is crucial for teams looking to enhance their competitiveness through new talent.
NFL Draft 2026: First Overall Pick is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Fernando Mendoza leads at 99% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Arvell Reese at 6%.
Fernando Mendoza currently leads at 99% implied probability. Behind Fernando Mendoza, Arvell Reese at 6% are the next closest contenders. The 9.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Fernando Mendoza is selected as the Pro Football First overall pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis is a polymarket to predict which player is drafted #1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft. If the listed player is drafted first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2026 NFL Draft is canceled or not completed by July 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Fernando Mendoza
99.3% avg
