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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 3.5% // +$350.00

Live prediction market odds for Pro Baseball Home Runs Leader. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Pro Baseball Home Runs Leader

2026-10-11

About This Market

Share

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Pro Baseball Home Runs Leader title. This event is pivotal as it highlights individual player performances and can influence team strategies and fan engagement as the season progresses.

Kyle Schwarber leads the “Pro Baseball Home Runs Leader” event at 49.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Yordan Alvarez (23.5%), Nick Kurtz (8.6%), Matt Olson (4.8%), and Ben Rice (2.5%). A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
KS
Kyle Schwarber
49% Avg
Kalshi50¢
Polymarket52¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
47.0%44¢50¢50¢56¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.5%49¢52¢48¢51¢
YA
Yordan AlvarezARB
24% Avg
Kalshi26¢
Polymarket23¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
25.5%25¢26¢74¢75¢
PolymarketPolymarket
22.0%21¢23¢77¢79¢
NK
Nick Kurtz
9% Avg
Kalshi9¢
Polymarket20¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
7.0%5¢9¢91¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
10.0%0¢20¢80¢100¢
MO
Matt Olson
5% Avg
Kalshi8¢
Polymarket5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
6.5%5¢8¢92¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.0%1¢5¢95¢99¢
BR
Ben Rice
2% Avg
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%0¢4¢96¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.0%0¢2¢98¢100¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber is a left fielder and designated hitter for the Philadelphia Phillies. He led the National League with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs in 2025, finishing second in NL MVP voting. Schwarber's powerful hitting and consistent performance make him a key contender in the Pro Baseball Home Runs Leader category.

About Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Álvarez is a designated hitter and left fielder for the Houston Astros. He was named the American League Rookie of the Year in 2019 after leading all rookies with a .655 slugging percentage. Álvarez has been a key contributor to the Astros' offense, earning three All-Star selections and a World Series championship.

About Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani is a professional baseball player for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He previously played for the Los Angeles Angels, where he was a two-way player, excelling both as a pitcher and a hitter. Ohtani's exceptional performance has established him as one of the most versatile and accomplished players in Major League Baseball.

Prediction Market Track Record

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Home Runs Leader?

Player performance, injuries, and team dynamics are key factors that influence the odds. Additionally, historical statistics and current season trends play a significant role.

How do prediction markets reflect player performance?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who bet on outcomes, thus reflecting collective expectations about player performance. As players hit home runs or face challenges, odds can fluctuate accordingly.

Why is the Home Runs Leader title significant in baseball?

The Home Runs Leader title is a prestigious accolade that showcases a player's power-hitting ability. It can enhance a player's marketability and impact contract negotiations and fan support.

What is "Pro Baseball Home Runs Leader" and why does it matter?

Pro Baseball Home Runs Leader is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Kyle Schwarber leads at 50% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Yordan Alvarez at 24%, Nick Kurtz at 9%, Matt Olson at 5%.

What is moving the odds on "Pro Baseball Home Runs Leader"?

Kyle Schwarber currently leads at 50% implied probability. Behind Kyle Schwarber, Yordan Alvarez at 24% and Nick Kurtz at 9% and Matt Olson at 5% are the next closest contenders. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.5%
Platforms2
Candidates20
Leader

Kyle Schwarber

49.5% avg

Market Rulebook: Pro Baseball Home Runs Leader

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Kyle Schwarber leads Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The participant must have the highest total of the specified statistic across the entire season type as documented by the official league statistics. Only statistics from games officially designated as part of the specified season type are included. Preseason, postseason, playoff, exhibition, friendly, or all-star statistics are excluded unless the season_type specifically includes them. If a participant competes for multiple teams during the season, statistics from all teams are combined. Participants who do not play any games due to injury, suspension, retirement, or other reasons resolve to No. League minimum qualification thresholds apply. In case of exact ties where the league does not declare a single winner, tied participants receive a proportional payout. Statistical corrections are only considered if made before the expiration date.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Historical Track Record

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Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTShohei Ohtani
Pre-event: 3%
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025
LOSTPre-event: 3%

About Munetaka Murakami

Munetaka Murakami is a professional baseball player for the Chicago White Sox. He previously played for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, where he set a Japanese record with 56 home runs in a single season. Murakami is renowned for his exceptional power-hitting abilities, making him a formidable presence in the lineup.

About Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge is the captain of the New York Yankees. He has been with the Yankees since 2016, earning two American League Most Valuable Player awards. Judge is recognized for his exceptional power-hitting abilities, consistently ranking among the league's top home run leaders.