Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the Pro Baseball Runs Leader?

Accepted Answer

Player statistics, injuries, and team performance significantly impact the odds. Additionally, historical data and current season trends are considered by bettors.

Question 2

How does the Pro Baseball Runs Leader affect team strategies?

Accepted Answer

Teams may adjust their lineups and batting orders based on who is leading in runs. This can also affect trade decisions and player development strategies.

Question 3

When does the market for the Pro Baseball Runs Leader close?

Accepted Answer

The market will close at the end of the regular baseball season on September 28, 2026. Bettors will need to place their wagers before this date to participate.

Question 4

What is "Pro Baseball Runs Leader" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Pro Baseball Runs Leader is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Kyle Schwarber leads at 51% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Shohei Ohtani at 24%, Bobby Witt Jr at 8%, Juan Soto at 4%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Pro Baseball Runs Leader"?

Accepted Answer

Kyle Schwarber currently leads at 51% implied probability. Behind Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani at 24% and Bobby Witt Jr at 8% and Juan Soto at 4% are the next closest contenders. The 93.6% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Pro Baseball Runs Leader" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Kyle Schwarber: 4¢ on Kalshi, 98¢ on Polymarket. Shohei Ohtani: 23¢ on Kalshi, 24¢ on Polymarket. Bobby Witt Jr: 9¢ on Kalshi, 7¢ on Polymarket. Juan Soto: 5¢ on Kalshi, 4¢ on Polymarket. The 93.6% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Kyle Schwarber is at 51%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 51¢ means the market estimates a 51% probability that Kyle Schwarber will be the outcome. Buying one share at 51¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 96% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.0%	0¢	4¢	96¢	100¢
Polymarket	97.5%	96¢	99¢	1¢	4¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	26.5%	23¢	30¢	70¢	77¢
Polymarket	24.0%	23¢	25¢	75¢	77¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	5.5%	2¢	9¢	91¢	98¢
Polymarket	4.5%	2¢	7¢	93¢	98¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	5.0%	3¢	7¢	93¢	97¢
Polymarket	3.5%	3¢	4¢	96¢	97¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.0%	0¢	4¢	96¢	100¢
Polymarket	1.0%	1¢	1¢	99¢	99¢

Pro Baseball Runs Leader

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