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Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?

2026-05-01

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Democratic nominee for NY-10. This election is crucial as it will determine representation in a key district, influencing local policies and party dynamics leading up to the general election.

Brad Lander leads the “Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-10” event at 79.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Dan Goldman (20.5%), Cameron Kasky (15.1%), Alexa Avilés (0.1%), and Yuh-Line Niou (0.1%). A 29.9% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
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Live Markets

2 platforms
BL
Brad LanderARB
79% Avg
Kalshi77¢
Polymarket83¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
76.0%75¢77¢23¢25¢
PolymarketPolymarket
82.0%81¢83¢17¢19¢
DG
Dan GoldmanARB
21% Avg
Kalshi23¢
Polymarket20¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
22.5%22¢23¢77¢78¢
PolymarketPolymarket
18.5%17¢20¢80¢83¢
CK
Cameron KaskyARB
16% Avg
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢2¢98¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
30.0%10¢50¢50¢90¢
AA
Alexa Avilés
0% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.0%0¢0¢100¢100¢
YN
Yuh-Line Niou
1% Avg
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢2¢98¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.0%0¢0¢100¢100¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Brad Lander

Brad Lander is a former New York City Comptroller and urban planner. He served as the 45th Comptroller from 2022 to 2025 and was a New York City Council member from 2010 to 2021. Lander is currently running for New York's 10th Congressional District, aiming to challenge incumbent Dan Goldman in the Democratic primary.

Prediction Market Track Record

2025 NYC Mayoral ElectionLOSTPre-event: 50%Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?LOSTPre-event: 0%

About Dan Goldman

Dan Goldman is the U.S. Representative for New York's 10th congressional district, serving since January 3, 2023. Before entering Congress, he was the lead counsel in the first impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump in 2019. His current role makes him a key figure in the Democratic nomination for NY-10.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Democratic nominee in NY-10?

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and campaign fundraising efforts significantly impact the odds. Additionally, voter sentiment and demographic shifts in the district play a crucial role.

When is the primary election for NY-10?

The primary election for NY-10 is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This date is critical for candidates to secure their position for the general election.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment in elections?

Prediction markets aggregate the collective opinions of participants, often reflecting real-time public sentiment. As events unfold, such as debates or major news, odds can shift rapidly to mirror changing perceptions.

What is "Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?" and why does it matter?

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-10 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Brad Lander leads at 79% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Dan Goldman at 21%, Cameron Kasky at 15%, Alexa Avilés at 0%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?"?

Brad Lander currently leads at 79% implied probability. Behind Brad Lander, Dan Goldman at 21% and Cameron Kasky at 15% and Alexa Avilés at 0% are the next closest contenders. The 29.9% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracledemocrats.orgConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
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Market Rulebook: Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Brad Lander wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-10 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracledemocrats.orgConsensus of Sources

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

2025 NYC Mayoral Election

Resolved

2025-11-04

LOSTBrad Lander
Pre-event: 50%

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?

Resolved

2026-05-01

LOSTBrad Lander
Pre-event: 0%
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
29.9%
Platforms2
Candidates5
Leader

Brad Lander

79.0% avg