Question 1

What factors influence predictions about departures from the Trump administration?

Accepted Answer

Predictions are influenced by political dynamics, public opinion, and the administration's evolving priorities. Changes in policy or controversies can also impact the stability of key officials.

Question 2

How do prediction markets determine the likelihood of someone leaving the administration?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate the collective insights and sentiments of participants, reflecting their expectations based on current events and historical trends. Odds fluctuate as new information becomes available.

Question 3

What is the significance of tracking departures from the Trump administration?

Accepted Answer

Tracking departures can provide insight into the administration's stability and effectiveness. It also highlights the political landscape and potential shifts in power within the government.

Question 4

What is "Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Kristi Noem leads at 76% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Pete Hegseth at 44%, Tulsi Gabbard at 40%, John Ratcliffe at 28%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

Kristi Noem currently leads at 76% implied probability. Behind Kristi Noem, Pete Hegseth at 44% and Tulsi Gabbard at 40% and John Ratcliffe at 28% are the next closest contenders. The 45.9% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Kristi Noem: 99¢ on Kalshi, 53¢ on Polymarket. Pete Hegseth: 42¢ on Kalshi, 46¢ on Polymarket. Tulsi Gabbard: 37¢ on Kalshi, 43¢ on Polymarket. John Ratcliffe: 18¢ on Kalshi, 38¢ on Polymarket. The 45.9% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Kristi Noem is at 76%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 76¢ means the market estimates a 76% probability that Kristi Noem will be the outcome. Buying one share at 76¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 32% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	99.5%	99¢	100¢	0¢	1¢
Polymarket	53.0%	52¢	54¢	46¢	48¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	42.0%	41¢	43¢	57¢	59¢
Polymarket	45.5%	42¢	49¢	51¢	58¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	37.5%	37¢	38¢	62¢	63¢
Polymarket	43.0%	42¢	44¢	56¢	58¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	18.0%	17¢	19¢	81¢	83¢
Polymarket	38.0%	9¢	67¢	33¢	91¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	34.5%	34¢	35¢	65¢	66¢
Polymarket	38.0%	33¢	43¢	57¢	67¢

Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?

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