About This Market
SharePolymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will leave the Trump administration in 2026. Factors such as political dynamics, public opinion, and potential shifts in administration priorities influence the likelihood of departures from key positions.
Pam Bondi leads the “Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026” event at 99.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Kristi Noem (81.5%), Kash Patel (78.8%), Tulsi Gabbard (62.3%), and Howard Lutnick (54.5%). A 34.9% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
