What are the current odds for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Keonne Rodriguez: 28¢ on Kalshi, 26¢ on Polymarket. Steve Bannon: 17¢ on Kalshi, 21¢ on Polymarket. Bob Menendez: 11¢ on Kalshi, 26¢ on Polymarket. Roger Ver: 15¢ on Kalshi, 19¢ on Polymarket. The 15.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Keonne Rodriguez is at 27%?

A price of 27¢ means the market estimates a 27% probability that Keonne Rodriguez will be the outcome. Buying one share at 27¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 270% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Who will Trump pardon before 2027? | Live Odds Comparison

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Who will Trump pardon before 2027? | Live Odds Comparison | Prediction Hunt

About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who Trump will pardon before 2027. The outcome could influence public perception and political dynamics as the former president navigates his post-presidency legacy and potential future campaigns.

Keonne Rodriguez leads the “Who will Trump pardon before 2027” event at 27.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Steve Bannon (19.0%), Bob Menendez (18.3%), Roger Ver (17.0%), and Eric Adams (15.0%). A 15.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms

Keonne Rodriguez

27% Avg

30¢

32¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	28.0%	26¢	30¢	70¢	74¢
Polymarket	25.0%	18¢	32¢	68¢	82¢

Steve Bannon

18% Avg

17¢

27¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	14.0%	11¢	17¢	83¢	89¢
Polymarket	21.0%	15¢	27¢	73¢	85¢

Bob Menendez

18% Avg

13¢

46¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	10.5%	8¢	13¢	87¢	92¢
Polymarket	26.0%	6¢	46¢	54¢	94¢

Roger Ver

16% Avg

15¢

29¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	12.5%	10¢	15¢	85¢	90¢
Polymarket	19.0%	9¢	29¢	71¢	91¢

Eric Adams

12% Avg

10¢

27¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	6.5%	3¢	10¢	90¢	97¢
Polymarket	17.5%	8¢	27¢	73¢	92¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Keonne Rodriguez

Keonne Rodriguez is the former CEO and co-founder of Samourai Wallet, a cryptocurrency mixing service. In November 2025, he was sentenced to five years in prison and fined $250,000 for operating an unlicensed money transmitting business that laundered over $237 million in criminal proceeds. His involvement in the cryptocurrency industry and subsequent legal issues make him relevant to discussions about potential pardons by President Trump before 2027.

About Steve Bannon

Steve Bannon is a political strategist and media executive, currently hosting the 'War Room' podcast. He served as White House Chief Strategist from January to August 2017. Bannon's previous role as a senior advisor to President Trump makes him a notable figure in discussions about potential pardons.

Prediction Market Track Record

2025 Trump PardonLOSTPre-event: 5%

About Bob Menendez

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence Trump's potential pardons?

Factors include public opinion, ongoing legal challenges, and political alliances. Pardons could also be used to rally support among specific voter bases.

How do prediction markets determine odds for pardons?

Odds are influenced by market sentiment, news developments, and expert analysis. Traders buy and sell based on their expectations of who may receive a pardon.

What is the historical context of presidential pardons?

Presidential pardons have historically been used to address perceived injustices or to grant clemency. They can also serve as political tools to strengthen relationships with supporters.

What is "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" and why does it matter?

Who will Trump pardon before 2027 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Keonne Rodriguez leads at 27% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Steve Bannon at 19%, Bob Menendez at 18%, Roger Ver at 17%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"?

Keonne Rodriguez currently leads at 27% implied probability. Behind Keonne Rodriguez, Steve Bannon at 19% and Bob Menendez at 18% and Roger Ver at 17% are the next closest contenders. The 15.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Polymarket

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Stats

Spread15.5%

Platforms2

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Keonne Rodriguez

About Steve Bannon

About Bob Menendez

Frequently Asked Questions

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Market Rulebook: Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Historical Track Record

2025 Trump Pardon

About Roger Ver

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