What are the current odds for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Bob Menendez: 7¢ on Kalshi, 40¢ on Polymarket. Keonne Rodriguez: 24¢ on Kalshi, 21¢ on Polymarket. Steve Bannon: 15¢ on Kalshi, 20¢ on Polymarket. Martin Shkreli: 12¢ on Kalshi, 15¢ on Polymarket. The 33.1% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Bob Menendez is at 24%?

A price of 24¢ means the market estimates a 24% probability that Bob Menendez will be the outcome. Buying one share at 24¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 317% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Who will Trump pardon before 2027? Odds

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About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who Trump will pardon before 2027. The outcome could influence public perception and political dynamics as the former president navigates his post-presidency legacy and potential future campaigns.

Bob Menendez leads the “Who will Trump pardon before 2027” event at 23.6% implied probability. Other contenders include Keonne Rodriguez (22.5%), Steve Bannon (17.5%), Martin Shkreli (13.3%), and Eric Adams (11.3%). A 33.1% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

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Live Markets

2 platforms

Bob Menendez

25% Avg

11¢

76¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	9.0%	7¢	11¢	89¢	93¢
Polymarket	40.0%	4¢	76¢	24¢	96¢

Keonne Rodriguez

23% Avg

27¢

37¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	24.0%	21¢	27¢	73¢	79¢
Polymarket	21.0%	5¢	37¢	63¢	95¢

Steve BannonARB

18% Avg

15¢

26¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	12.5%	10¢	15¢	85¢	90¢
Polymarket	22.5%	19¢	26¢	74¢	81¢

Martin Shkreli

12% Avg

12¢

23¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	9.5%	7¢	12¢	88¢	93¢
Polymarket	14.5%	6¢	23¢	77¢	94¢

Eric Adams

10% Avg

9¢

19¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	6.0%	3¢	9¢	91¢	97¢
Polymarket	13.5%	8¢	19¢	81¢	92¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Bob Menendez

Bob Menendez is a former U.S. Senator from New Jersey, having served from 2006 until his resignation in August 2024. He was convicted in July 2024 on federal corruption charges, including bribery and acting as a foreign agent for Egypt and Qatar. His prior role as a U.S. Senator and his conviction on corruption charges are relevant to this prediction market.

Prediction Market Track Record

2025 Trump PardonLOSTPre-event: 1%

About Keonne Rodriguez

Keonne Rodriguez is the former CEO and co-founder of Samourai Wallet, a cryptocurrency mixing service. In November 2025, he was sentenced to five years in prison and fined $250,000 for operating an unlicensed money transmitting business that laundered over $237 million in criminal proceeds. His involvement in the cryptocurrency industry and subsequent legal issues make him relevant to discussions about potential pardons by President Trump before 2027.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence Trump's potential pardons?

Factors include public opinion, ongoing legal challenges, and political alliances. Pardons could also be used to rally support among specific voter bases.

How do prediction markets determine odds for pardons?

Odds are influenced by market sentiment, news developments, and expert analysis. Traders buy and sell based on their expectations of who may receive a pardon.

What is the historical context of presidential pardons?

Presidential pardons have historically been used to address perceived injustices or to grant clemency. They can also serve as political tools to strengthen relationships with supporters.

What is "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" and why does it matter?

Who will Trump pardon before 2027 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Bob Menendez leads at 24% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Keonne Rodriguez at 23%, Steve Bannon at 18%, Martin Shkreli at 13%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?"?

Bob Menendez currently leads at 24% implied probability. Behind Bob Menendez, Keonne Rodriguez at 23% and Steve Bannon at 18% and Martin Shkreli at 13% are the next closest contenders. The 33.1% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Stats

Spread33.1%

Platforms2

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Bob Menendez

About Keonne Rodriguez

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Historical Track Record

2025 Trump Pardon

About Steve Bannon

About Martin Shkreli

About Eric Adams

About Ghislaine Maxwell

About Elizabeth Holmes

About Roger Ver

About Julian Assange

About Edward Snowden

About Sam Bankman-Fried

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