What are the current odds for "Who will visit Iran before July?" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Any U.S. House member: 1¢ on Kalshi, 98¢ on Polymarket. Jared Kushner: 2¢ on Kalshi, 2¢ on Polymarket. Any U.S. Senator: 1¢ on Kalshi, 1¢ on Polymarket. JD Vance: 1¢ on Kalshi, 1¢ on Polymarket. The 96.6% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Any U.S. House member is at 50%?

A price of 50¢ means the market estimates a 50% probability that Any U.S. House member will be the outcome. Buying one share at 50¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 100% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Who will visit Iran before July? Odds — Any U.S. House member 50¢

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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 96.6% // +$9660.00

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About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will visit Iran before July 2026. Diplomatic relations and geopolitical tensions in the region could influence the likelihood of various leaders making such visits.

Any U.S. House member leads the “Who will visit Iran before July” event at 49.6% implied probability. Other contenders include Jared Kushner (1.6%), Any U.S. Senator (1.4%), JD Vance (1.1%), and Pete Hegseth (1.2%). A 96.6% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

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Live Markets

2 platforms

Any U.S. House memberARB

49% Avg

1¢

99¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	98.0%	97¢	99¢	1¢	3¢

Jared Kushner

2% Avg

2¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.5%	1¢	2¢	98¢	99¢
Polymarket	1.5%	1¢	2¢	98¢	99¢

Any U.S. Senator

1% Avg

1¢

2¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.0%	1¢	1¢	99¢	99¢
Polymarket	1.5%	1¢	2¢	99¢	99¢

JD Vance

1% Avg

2¢

1¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.5%	1¢	2¢	99¢	99¢
Polymarket	1.0%	1¢	1¢	99¢	99¢

Pete Hegseth

1% Avg

1¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.0%	1¢	1¢	99¢	99¢
Polymarket	1.0%	1¢	1¢	99¢	99¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Jared Kushner

Jared Kushner is the founder and CEO of Affinity Partners, a private equity firm based in Miami. He served as Senior Advisor to President Donald Trump from 2017 to 2021, focusing on Middle East policy. His extensive experience in Middle East diplomacy makes him a key figure in discussions about potential visits to Iran.

Prediction Market Track Record

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Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence visits to Iran?

Factors include diplomatic negotiations, regional security concerns, and international relations. Changes in leadership or policy could also impact the likelihood of visits.

How do prediction markets work for this event?

Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the likelihood of specific outcomes. Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, reflecting collective sentiment about potential visits.

Why is the timing of these visits significant?

Timing is crucial as it may coincide with key political events or negotiations. Visits before July could signal shifts in diplomatic strategy or alliances.

What is "Who will visit Iran before July?" and why does it matter?

Who will visit Iran before July is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Any U.S. House member leads at 50% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Jared Kushner at 2%, Any U.S. Senator at 1%, JD Vance at 1%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will visit Iran before July?"?

Any U.S. House member currently leads at 50% implied probability. Behind Any U.S. House member, Jared Kushner at 2% and Any U.S. Senator at 1% and JD Vance at 1% are the next closest contenders. The 96.6% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Outcome

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Resolution Oracles

Kalshi

CNBC CNN Fox News MSNBC Politico Reuters Semafor the Associated Press The Guardian The Information The New York Times

Market Rulebook: Who will visit Iran before July?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Benjamin Netanyahu has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.

Resolution Oracles

CNBC CNN Fox News MSNBC Politico Reuters Semafor the Associated Press The Guardian The Information The New York Times The Wall Street Journal The Washington Post

Polymarket

Primary Rule

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Who will visit Iran before July?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Jared Kushner

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Who will visit Iran before July?

Historical Track Record

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About JD Vance

About Pete Hegseth

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About Benjamin Netanyahu