Live prediction market odds for Who will visit Iran before July?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-30
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will visit Iran before July 2026. Diplomatic relations and geopolitical tensions in the region could influence the likelihood of various leaders making such visits.
Any U.S. House member leads Who will visit Iran before July at 12.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Jared Kushner (8.8%), Any U.S. Senator (9.5%), Marco Rubio (8.8%), and Pete Hegseth (8.8%). A 2.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include diplomatic negotiations, regional security concerns, and international relations. Changes in leadership or policy could also impact the likelihood of visits.
Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the likelihood of specific outcomes. Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, reflecting collective sentiment about potential visits.
Timing is crucial as it may coincide with key political events or negotiations. Visits before July could signal shifts in diplomatic strategy or alliances.
Who will visit Iran before July is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Any U.S. House member leads at 12% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Jared Kushner at 9%, Any U.S. Senator at 10%, Marco Rubio at 9%.
Any U.S. House member currently leads at 12% implied probability. Behind Any U.S. House member, Jared Kushner at 9% and Any U.S. Senator at 10% and Marco Rubio at 9% are the next closest contenders. A 2.5% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Any U.S. House member
12.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Benjamin Netanyahu has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.
PolymarketIf the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
