What are the current odds for "Who will visit Iran before July?" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: JD Vance: 8¢ on Kalshi, 6¢ on Polymarket. Any U.S. House member: 7¢ on Kalshi, 7¢ on Polymarket. Pete Hegseth: 5¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. Marco Rubio: 5¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. The 2.6% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.

What does it mean that JD Vance is at 7%?

A price of 7¢ means the market estimates a 7% probability that JD Vance will be the outcome. Buying one share at 7¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 1329% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Who will visit Iran before July? Odds — Any U.S. House member 7¢

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About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will visit Iran before July 2026. Diplomatic relations and geopolitical tensions in the region could influence the likelihood of various leaders making such visits.

JD Vance leads the “Who will visit Iran before July” event at 6.9% implied probability. Other contenders include Any U.S. House member (6.8%), Pete Hegseth (4.8%), Marco Rubio (4.8%), and Any U.S. Senator (4.6%). A 2.6% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms

JD VanceARB

7% Avg

9¢

6¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	8.0%	7¢	9¢	91¢	93¢
Polymarket	6.0%	6¢	6¢	94¢	94¢

Any U.S. House member

7% Avg

7¢

8¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	6.5%	6¢	7¢	93¢	94¢
Polymarket	7.0%	6¢	8¢	92¢	94¢

Pete Hegseth

5% Avg

5¢

6¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	5.0%	5¢	5¢	95¢	96¢
Polymarket	5.0%	4¢	6¢	94¢	96¢

Marco Rubio

5% Avg

5¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	5.0%	5¢	5¢	95¢	95¢
Polymarket	4.5%	4¢	5¢	95¢	96¢

Any U.S. Senator

5% Avg

6¢

5¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	5.0%	4¢	6¢	94¢	96¢
Polymarket	4.5%	4¢	5¢	95¢	96¢

Candidate Spotlight

About JD Vance

JD Vance is the current Vice President of the United States, serving since January 20, 2025. Before this, he was a U.S. Senator from Ohio from 2023 to 2025. His current role makes him a key figure in U.S. foreign policy decisions, including potential diplomatic engagements with Iran.

About Pete Hegseth

Pete Hegseth is the U.S. Secretary of Defense, serving since January 25, 2025. He previously co-hosted Fox & Friends Weekend and authored five books, including the New York Times bestseller The War on Warriors (2024). His current role involves overseeing U.S. military operations, including the ongoing conflict with Iran.

Prediction Market Track Record

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About Marco Rubio

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence visits to Iran?

Factors include diplomatic negotiations, regional security concerns, and international relations. Changes in leadership or policy could also impact the likelihood of visits.

How do prediction markets work for this event?

Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the likelihood of specific outcomes. Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, reflecting collective sentiment about potential visits.

Why is the timing of these visits significant?

Timing is crucial as it may coincide with key political events or negotiations. Visits before July could signal shifts in diplomatic strategy or alliances.

What is "Who will visit Iran before July?" and why does it matter?

Who will visit Iran before July is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). JD Vance leads at 7% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Any U.S. House member at 7%, Pete Hegseth at 5%, Marco Rubio at 5%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will visit Iran before July?"?

JD Vance currently leads at 7% implied probability. Behind JD Vance, Any U.S. House member at 7% and Pete Hegseth at 5% and Marco Rubio at 5% are the next closest contenders. A 2.6% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.

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Outcome

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Resolution Oracles

Kalshi

CNBC CNN Fox News MSNBC Politico Reuters Semafor the Associated Press The Guardian The Information The New York Times

Market Rulebook: Who will visit Iran before July?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Benjamin Netanyahu has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.

Resolution Oracles

CNBC CNN Fox News MSNBC Politico Reuters Semafor the Associated Press The Guardian The Information The New York Times The Wall Street Journal The Washington Post

Polymarket

Primary Rule

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Who will visit Iran before July?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About JD Vance

About Pete Hegseth

About Marco Rubio

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Who will visit Iran before July?

Historical Track Record

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