Live prediction market odds for Eurovision Winner 2026. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Opinion.
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Kalshi / Polymarket / Opinion
2026-05-16
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Eurovision Winner 2026 event. This annual music competition garners global attention, with national pride and cultural representation at stake as countries vie for the coveted title.
Moldova leads the “Eurovision Winner 2026” event at 40.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Finland (36.8%), Croatia (30.5%), Luxembourg (30.5%), and Norway (25.5%). A 79.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are influenced by national selection processes, artist popularity, and previous performance history. Additionally, public sentiment and social media trends can sway perceptions leading up to the event.
The Eurovision Winner 2026 event is scheduled for May 16, 2026. This date marks the culmination of a series of national contests held across participating countries.
Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the likelihood of various outcomes, such as which country will win. Prices fluctuate based on new information, such as artist announcements and public voting trends.
Eurovision Winner 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion). Moldova leads at 41% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Finland at 37%, Croatia at 31%, Luxembourg at 31%.
Moldova currently leads at 41% implied probability. Behind Moldova, Finland at 37% and Croatia at 31% and Luxembourg at 31% are the next closest contenders. The 79.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Albania wins the Eurovision Song Contest, then the market resolves to Yes.
OpinionThis market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Moldova
40.5% avg
