Live prediction market odds for 2026 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-10-10
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner. This prestigious award recognizes efforts to promote peace and can influence global political dynamics and humanitarian initiatives.
UNRWA leads the “2026 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner” event at 7.1% implied probability. Other contenders include Yulia Navalnaya (7.0%), and Pope Leo XIV (5.3%). A 2.3% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Prediction Market Track Record
The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded based on the recipient's contributions to peace efforts, including diplomacy, humanitarian work, and conflict resolution. The Nobel Committee evaluates nominations submitted by qualified individuals and organizations.
Winning the Nobel Peace Prize can elevate the profile of individuals or organizations, potentially leading to increased support for their causes. It often brings international attention to specific issues, influencing public opinion and policy.
The Nobel Peace Prize winner is typically announced in early October each year. The award ceremony takes place in December, where the laureate is honored for their achievements.
2026 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). UNRWA leads at 7% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Yulia Navalnaya at 7%, Pope Leo XIV at 5%.
UNRWA currently leads at 7% implied probability. Behind UNRWA, Yulia Navalnaya at 7% and Pope Leo XIV at 5% are the next closest contenders. A 2.3% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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UNRWA
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Yulia Navalnaya wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
7.1% avg
