Live prediction market odds for Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-10-10
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Nobel Peace Prize Winner for 2026. The outcome of this prestigious award can influence global political dynamics and highlight key humanitarian efforts recognized by the international community.
Elon Musk leads the “Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026” event at 50.8% implied probability. Other contenders include Volodymyr Zelenskyy (8.2%), and Donald Trump (6.3%). A 98.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are influenced by current events, nominees' public actions, and global political climates. Media coverage and public opinion also play significant roles in shaping perceptions of potential winners.
The Nobel Peace Prize is typically announced on the second Friday of October each year. In 2026, this date falls on October 10.
Winning the Nobel Peace Prize can elevate a recipient's profile and amplify their causes on a global stage. It often leads to increased advocacy and support for the issues they represent.
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Elon Musk leads at 51% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 8%, Donald Trump at 6%.
Elon Musk currently leads at 51% implied probability. Behind Elon Musk, Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 8% and Donald Trump at 6% are the next closest contenders. The 98.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Elon Musk
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Prediction Market Track Record
50.8% avg
