What are the current odds for "US Open Men's Singles Winner" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Jannik Sinner: 46¢ on Kalshi, 41¢ on Polymarket. Carlos Alcaraz: 37¢ on Kalshi, 22¢ on Polymarket. Novak Djokovic: 3¢ on Kalshi, 6¢ on Polymarket. Ben Shelton: 5¢ on Kalshi, 3¢ on Polymarket. The 15.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Jannik Sinner is at 44%?

A price of 44¢ means the market estimates a 44% probability that Jannik Sinner will be the outcome. Buying one share at 44¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 127% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

US Open Men's Singles Winner Odds

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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 15.5% // +$1550.00

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About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the US Open Men's Singles Winner for the 2026 tournament. This event draws attention as top players compete for one of tennis's most prestigious titles, influencing their rankings and legacy in the sport.

Jannik Sinner leads the “US Open Men's Singles Winner” event at 43.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Carlos Alcaraz (29.3%), Novak Djokovic (4.3%), Ben Shelton (4.0%), and Alexander Zverev (3.5%). A 15.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

No price history available

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Live Markets

2 platforms

Jannik SinnerARB

44% Avg

47¢

41¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	46.5%	46¢	47¢	53¢	54¢
Polymarket	40.5%	40¢	41¢	59¢	60¢

Carlos AlcarazARB

29% Avg

40¢

22¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	37.0%	34¢	40¢	60¢	66¢
Polymarket	21.5%	21¢	22¢	78¢	79¢

Novak Djokovic

8% Avg

17¢

6¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	10.0%	3¢	17¢	83¢	97¢
Polymarket	5.5%	5¢	6¢	94¢	95¢

Ben Shelton

5% Avg

10¢

3¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	6.5%	3¢	10¢	90¢	97¢
Polymarket	3.0%	3¢	3¢	97¢	97¢

Alexander Zverev

10% Avg

27¢

4¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	15.0%	3¢	27¢	73¢	97¢
Polymarket	4.0%	4¢	4¢	96¢	96¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Jannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner is an Italian professional tennis player, currently ranked world No. 1 by the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP). He has won 28 ATP Tour singles titles, including four Grand Slam titles and nine Masters 1000 events. Sinner's consistent performance and dominance in the sport have established him as a leading figure in men's tennis.

Prediction Market Track Record

Men's Australian Open WinnerLOSTPre-event: 1%Jannik Sinner vs. Frances TiafoeWONPre-event: 0%Jannik Sinner vs. Frances TiafoeWONPre-event: 0%

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the US Open Men's Singles Winner?

Odds are influenced by player performance in previous tournaments, injuries, and head-to-head matchups. Additionally, public sentiment and betting patterns can shift the odds leading up to the event.

When does the US Open Men's Singles tournament take place?

The US Open Men's Singles tournament is scheduled for September 2026, culminating in the final match on September 13. This annual event is one of the four Grand Slam tournaments in professional tennis.

How do prediction markets work for sports events like the US Open?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares in the outcome of events, with prices reflecting the perceived probability of each outcome. As new information becomes available, such as player form or match conditions, the odds can change rapidly.

What is "US Open Men's Singles Winner" and why does it matter?

US Open Men's Singles Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Jannik Sinner leads at 44% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Carlos Alcaraz at 29%, Novak Djokovic at 4%, Ben Shelton at 4%.

What is moving the odds on "US Open Men's Singles Winner"?

Jannik Sinner currently leads at 44% implied probability. Behind Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz at 29% and Novak Djokovic at 4% and Ben Shelton at 4% are the next closest contenders. The 15.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Kalshi

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Stats

Spread15.5%

Platforms2

Candidates18

Leader

Jannik Sinner

43.5% avg

US Open Men's Singles Winner

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Jannik Sinner

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: US Open Men's Singles Winner

Historical Track Record

Men's Australian Open Winner

Jannik Sinner vs. Frances Tiafoe

Jannik Sinner vs. Frances Tiafoe

Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev

Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev

Sebastian Baez vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Alexander Bublik vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Valentin Vacherot vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Ben Shelton

Ben Shelton vs. Emilio Nava

Ben Shelton vs. Alexander Blockx

Ben Shelton vs. Joao Fonseca

About Carlos Alcaraz

About Novak Djokovic

About Ben Shelton

About Alexander Zverev

About Taylor Fritz

About Daniil Medvedev

About Jakub Mensik

About Joao Fonseca