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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 30.0% // +$3000.00

Live prediction market odds for Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?

2026-12-31

About This Market

Share

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will attend the wedding of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. This event garners attention due to the couple's celebrity status and the potential for high-profile guests, influencing public interest and media coverage.

Selena Gomez leads the “Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding” event at 92.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Brittany Mahomes (84.5%), Sabrina Carpenter (83.8%), Gracie Abrams (82.0%), and Este Haim (80.8%). A 30.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
SG
Selena Gomez
91% Avg
Kalshi92¢
Polymarket94¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
89.0%86¢92¢8¢14¢
PolymarketPolymarket
92.5%91¢94¢6¢9¢
BM
Brittany MahomesARB
84% Avg
Kalshi83¢
Polymarket86¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
82.0%81¢83¢17¢19¢
PolymarketPolymarket
85.0%84¢86¢14¢16¢
SC
Sabrina CarpenterARB
83% Avg
Kalshi79¢
Polymarket94¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
77.0%75¢79¢21¢25¢
PolymarketPolymarket
88.5%83¢94¢6¢17¢
GA
Gracie Abrams
82% Avg
Kalshi82¢
Polymarket90¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
79.5%77¢82¢18¢23¢
PolymarketPolymarket
84.5%79¢90¢10¢21¢
EH
Este Haim
81% Avg
Kalshi81¢
Polymarket88¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
78.5%76¢81¢19¢24¢
PolymarketPolymarket
83.0%78¢88¢12¢22¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Selena Gomez

Selena Gomez is an American singer, actress, and entrepreneur. She is currently married to music producer Benny Blanco. She is relevant to this prediction market due to her close friendship with Taylor Swift.

About Brittany Mahomes

Brittany Mahomes is the co-owner of the Kansas City Current, a National Women's Soccer League team. She was inducted into the University of Texas at Tyler Hall of Fame in January 2026 for her outstanding collegiate soccer career. Her close relationship with Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce makes her a likely attendee at their wedding.

About Sabrina Carpenter

Sabrina Carpenter is an American singer-songwriter and actress. She opened for Taylor Swift on several dates of The Eras Tour in 2023 and 2024. Her connection to Taylor Swift makes her a relevant candidate for attending Swift's wedding.

Prediction Market Track Record

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence attendance predictions for the wedding?

Factors include the couple's personal relationships, industry connections, and public appearances leading up to the event. Media speculation and social media interactions also play a role in shaping expectations.

How do prediction markets work for this event?

Prediction markets allow participants to place bets on the likelihood of specific guests attending the wedding. Prices fluctuate based on market sentiment and emerging news about the couple and their social circles.

Why is this wedding a topic of interest in prediction markets?

The wedding of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce attracts attention due to their fame and the potential for a star-studded guest list. Public fascination with celebrity relationships drives engagement in prediction markets surrounding the event.

What is "Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?" and why does it matter?

Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Selena Gomez leads at 92% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Brittany Mahomes at 85%, Sabrina Carpenter at 84%, Gracie Abrams at 82%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?"?

Selena Gomez currently leads at 92% implied probability. Behind Selena Gomez, Brittany Mahomes at 85% and Sabrina Carpenter at 84% and Gracie Abrams at 82% are the next closest contenders. The 30.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
ABCAxiosBillboardCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCPoliticoReutersSemaforthe Associated Press

Market Rulebook: Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Danielle Haim attended Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

Attendance is confirmed if the person is reported present at the event by any Source Agency, including social media posts by the person themselves. Virtual attendance counts as attendance unless the event is explicitly in-person only. Brief appearances or partial attendance count as attendance. The event must occur in the specified year. If the event is cancelled, postponed beyond the expiration date, or does not occur in the specified year, the market resolves to No.

Resolution Oracles
ABCAxiosBillboardCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCPoliticoReutersSemaforthe Associated PressThe InformationThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington PostUSA TodayVogue
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the named people who attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding. If no wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". the resolution source for this market will be photographic or video evidence of the event, or by statements from Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, the attendee, or their legal or social media representatives. Only physical attendance of the event will qualify; virtual attendance or confirmation of an invitation will not count.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Grammy Award for Song Of The Year in 2026?

Resolved

2026-02-01

LOSTGracie Abrams
Pre-event: 50%

Grammys: Album of the Year Winner

Resolved

2026-02-01

LOSTSabrina Carpenter
Pre-event: 1%

Grammys: Record of the Year Winner

Resolved

2026-02-01

LOSTGracie Abrams
Pre-event: 50%

Who will perform at the 2026 Grammys?

Resolved

2026-02-01

WONSabrina Carpenter
Pre-event: 97%

Grammys: Best Music Video Winner

Resolved

2026-02-01

LOSTSabrina Carpenter
Pre-event: 60%

Who will perform at the Big Game?

Resolved

2026-02-09

LOSTGracie Abrams
Pre-event: 0%

#1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of May 30, 2026?

Resolved

2026-05-25

LOSTGracie Abrams
Pre-event: 0%
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
Grammy Award for Song Of The Year in 2026?
LOSTPre-event: 1%
Grammys: Album of the Year WinnerLOSTPre-event: 1%
Grammys: Record of the Year WinnerLOSTPre-event: 2%
Who will perform at the 2026 Grammys?WONPre-event: 97%
Grammys: Best Music Video WinnerLOSTPre-event: 60%

About Gracie Abrams

Gracie Abrams is a Grammy-nominated singer-songwriter and actress. She is currently starring in the upcoming A24 film 'Please,' marking her acting debut. Abrams is relevant to this prediction market due to her close professional relationship with Taylor Swift, having opened for Swift on the Eras Tour and collaborated on the song 'Us.'

Prediction Market Track Record

Grammy Award for Song Of The Year in 2026?LOSTPre-event: 50%Grammys: Record of the Year WinnerLOSTPre-event: 50%Who will perform at the Big Game?LOSTPre-event: 0%#1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of May 30, 2026?LOSTPre-event: 0%

About Este Haim

Este Haim is the bassist and vocalist of the pop-rock trio Haim. She married tech entrepreneur Jonathan Levin on New Year's Eve in California, with Taylor Swift and Stevie Nicks among the guests. Este's close relationship with Taylor Swift makes her a likely attendee at Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding.

About Alana Haim

Alana Haim is a singer, songwriter, and actress, currently a member of the pop rock band Haim. She gained recognition for her role in Paul Thomas Anderson's 'Licorice Pizza' (2021), earning a Golden Globe nomination. Alana's close friendship with Taylor Swift and her band's collaboration with Swift make her a likely attendee at the wedding.

About Danielle Haim

Danielle Haim is the lead guitarist and vocalist of the pop rock band Haim. She has collaborated with Taylor Swift, performing 'No Body, No Crime' during Swift's 2023 Eras Tour. Her close friendship with Swift makes her a likely attendee at Swift's wedding to Travis Kelce.

About Jack Antonoff

Jack Antonoff is a Grammy-winning producer and musician, currently managing his band Bleachers and collaborating with various artists. He co-produced Taylor Swift's 'Midnights' album and has been a close collaborator with her since 2014. His longstanding relationship with Swift makes him a notable figure to consider for attending her wedding to Travis Kelce.

About Phoebe Bridgers

Phoebe Bridgers is an American singer-songwriter and record producer. She is a member of the indie rock supergroup Boygenius, which released their debut album, 'The Record,' in March 2023. Bridgers opened for Taylor Swift during her 'Eras' Tour in 2023, making her a notable figure in the entertainment industry.

About Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs. He led the team to three Super Bowl victories and seven consecutive AFC Championship appearances. His close relationship with Travis Kelce makes him a likely guest at Taylor Swift and Kelce's wedding.

About Max Martin

Max Martin is a Swedish record producer and songwriter. He has written or co-written 29 Billboard Hot 100 number-one singles, including Taylor Swift's 'Shake It Off' and 'Blank Space'. His extensive collaboration with Swift makes him a key figure in her musical projects.

About Lana Del Rey

Lana Del Rey is an American singer-songwriter and poet. She released her ninth studio album, 'Did You Know That There's a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd,' in 2023. She is relevant to this prediction market due to her recent marriage to Jeremy Dufrene, an alligator swamp tour guide in Louisiana.

About Blake Lively

Blake Lively is an American actress and producer. She starred as Lily Bloom in the 2024 film adaptation of Colleen Hoover's novel 'It Ends with Us.' Her close friendship with Taylor Swift makes her a likely attendee at Swift's wedding to Travis Kelce.

About Jared Goff

Jared Goff is the starting quarterback for the Detroit Lions. He led the Lions to their first playoff victory in 32 years in 2024. His connection to the NFL and high-profile events makes him a relevant figure in entertainment predictions.
The Information
The New York Times
The Wall Street Journal
The Washington Post
USA Today
Vogue
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread30.0%
Platforms2
Candidates14
Leader

Selena Gomez

92.3% avg