Prediction Hunt logoPrediction Hunt
MarketsSmart MoneyArbitrageTrendingPaper TradingAPIPricing
Live
Prediction Hunt

Compare prediction market odds across every platform. Find the best prices and track smart money.

Markets

  • Elections
  • Sports
  • Crypto
  • Entertainment
  • US Presidential Election Hub
  • Archive

Tools

  • Trending
  • Arbitrage Scanner
  • Smart Money Feed
  • Calculators
  • News
  • Blog

Community

  • Discord
  • Twitter / X
  • Tools
  • About
  • Affiliate Program
  • API Terms of Service

This information is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always verify resolution criteria and platform rules before trading.

MarketsWhalesArbTrending

Live prediction market odds for Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.

Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.

Discord
Follow on X

Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt

Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?

2026-12-31

About This Market

Share

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the next new Prime Minister of Israel. This political contest is crucial as it will shape Israel's domestic and foreign policies amid ongoing regional tensions and economic challenges.

Benjamin Netanyahu leads the “Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel” event at 37.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Naftali Bennett (25.0%), Avigdor Lieberman (7.8%), Itamar Ben Gvir (2.6%), and Yair Lapid (1.3%). A 22.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
BG
Benny GantzARB
1% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket0¢
PredictIt2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%1¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.0%0¢0¢100¢100¢
PredictItPredictIt
1.5%1¢2¢98¢99¢
BN
Benjamin Netanyahu
32% Avg
Polymarket35¢
PredictIt39¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
PolymarketPolymarket
34.5%34¢35¢65¢66¢
PredictItPredictIt
30.0%21¢39¢61¢79¢
NB
Naftali BennettARB
25% Avg
Kalshi40¢
Polymarket15¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
36.5%33¢40¢60¢67¢
PolymarketPolymarket
14.0%13¢15¢85¢87¢
AL
Avigdor LiebermanARB
8% Avg
Kalshi14¢
Polymarket4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
12.0%10¢14¢86¢90¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.0%4¢4¢96¢96¢
IB
Itamar Ben GvirARB
3% Avg
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
4.5%4¢5¢95¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.0%1¢1¢99¢99¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu is the current Prime Minister of Israel, serving his sixth term since December 2022. He previously held the position from 1996 to 1999 and from 2009 to 2021, making him Israel's longest-serving prime minister. His extensive experience and leadership in Israeli politics make him a central figure in discussions about Israel's future leadership.

Prediction Market Track Record

2025 Trump PardonLOSTPre-event: 50%Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025LOSTPre-event: 1%Maduro out in 2025?LOSTPre-event: 2%

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Odds are influenced by party popularity, polling data, and public sentiment. Additionally, recent political events and coalition dynamics play a significant role.

How often do the odds change for this political event?

Odds can fluctuate frequently, especially after major political announcements or events such as elections and debates. Real-time updates reflect the latest shifts in public opinion and political developments.

What is the significance of the next Prime Minister for Israel?

The next Prime Minister will have a profound impact on Israel's governance, security policies, and international relations. Their leadership will also influence the socio-economic landscape of the country.

What is "Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?" and why does it matter?

Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Benjamin Netanyahu leads at 37% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Naftali Bennett at 25%, Avigdor Lieberman at 8%, Itamar Ben Gvir at 3%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?"?

Benjamin Netanyahu currently leads at 37% implied probability. Behind Benjamin Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett at 25% and Avigdor Lieberman at 8% and Itamar Ben Gvir at 3% are the next closest contenders. The 22.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Automate This Market

Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?” event. All for free.

As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et

Used by builders and traders in our 3K+ Discord community

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
The New York Times
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread22.0%
Platforms3
Candidates9
Leader

Benjamin Netanyahu

37.0% avg

Market Rulebook: Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Yair Lapid, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation.

Resolution Oracles
The New York Times

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

2025 Trump Pardon

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTBenjamin Netanyahu
Pre-event: 50%

Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTBenjamin Netanyahu
Pre-event: 1%

Maduro out in 2025?

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTBenjamin Netanyahu
Pre-event: 2%

#1 Searched Person on Google this year?

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTBenjamin Netanyahu
Pre-event: 1%

TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTBenjamin Netanyahu
Pre-event: 1%
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
#1 Searched Person on Google this year?
LOSTPre-event: 1%
TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?LOSTPre-event: 1%

About Naftali Bennett

Naftali Bennett is the leader of the political party Bennett 2026. He served as Israel's prime minister from June 2021 to June 2022. He is relevant to this prediction market as a potential candidate for the next prime minister of Israel.

About Yair Lapid

Yair Lapid is the Leader of the Opposition in Israel's Knesset. He served as Prime Minister from July to December 2022 and as Foreign Minister from 2021 to 2022. He is a central figure in Israeli politics, leading the centrist Yesh Atid party.

About Yossi Cohen

Yossi Cohen is the former Director of the Mossad, Israel's national intelligence agency, serving from 2016 to 2021. Prior to that, he was appointed National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2013. Cohen is relevant to this prediction market due to his recent public statements expressing interest in running for Prime Minister, indicating potential future political ambitions.
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yes$112 · 1 whale
No-$110 · 0 whales
Naftali Bennett
No$1.7K · 1 whale

$50K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Smart Money Feed
Full Feed

Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

PolymarketWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
BUYNo@ 86¢$299K trader P&L
Payout$2,000
Stake$1,720.00
23h ago
PolymarketWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
BUYYes@ 37¢$299K trader P&L
Payout$2,514
Stake$930.17
1d ago
PolymarketWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
BUYYes@ 12¢$367K trader P&L
Payout$4,572
Stake$548.69
2d ago
PolymarketWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
SELLYes@ 15¢$95K trader P&L
Stake$517.56
2d ago
PolymarketWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
SELLNo@ 72¢$243K trader P&L
Stake$720.00
4d ago