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Live prediction market odds for Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi / Polymarket

Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?

2026-12-31

About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the next new Prime Minister of Israel. This political contest is crucial as it will shape Israel's domestic and foreign policies amid ongoing regional tensions and economic challenges.

Naftali Bennett leads the “Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel” event at 30.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Yair Lapid (5.3%), Yariv Levin (6.3%), Benny Gantz (3.3%), and Avigdor Lieberman (2.2%). A 11.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

Live Markets

2 platforms
NB
Naftali BennettARB
30% Avg
Kalshi37¢
Polymarket25¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
36.0%35¢37¢63¢65¢
PolymarketPolymarket
24.5%24¢25¢75¢76¢
YL
Yair LapidARB
6% Avg
Kalshi11¢
Polymarket4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
9.0%7¢11¢89¢93¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.5%3¢4¢96¢97¢
YL
Yariv LevinARB
8% Avg
Kalshi16¢
Polymarket2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
13.5%11¢16¢84¢89¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.0%2¢2¢98¢99¢
BG
Benny Gantz
3% Avg
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
3.5%2¢5¢95¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.5%1¢2¢98¢99¢
AL
Avigdor Lieberman
2% Avg
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%1¢3¢97¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.0%1¢1¢99¢99¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Naftali Bennett

Naftali Bennett is the leader of the political party Bennett 2026. He served as Israel's prime minister from June 2021 to June 2022. He is relevant to this prediction market as a potential candidate for the next prime minister of Israel.

About Yair Lapid

Yair Lapid is the Leader of the Opposition in Israel's Knesset. He served as Prime Minister from July to December 2022 and as Foreign Minister from 2021 to 2022. He is a central figure in Israeli politics, leading the centrist Yesh Atid party.

About Yossi Cohen

Yossi Cohen is the former Director of the Mossad, Israel's national intelligence agency, serving from 2016 to 2021. Prior to that, he was appointed National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2013. Cohen is relevant to this prediction market due to his recent public statements expressing interest in running for Prime Minister, indicating potential future political ambitions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Odds are influenced by party popularity, polling data, and public sentiment. Additionally, recent political events and coalition dynamics play a significant role.

How often do the odds change for this political event?

Odds can fluctuate frequently, especially after major political announcements or events such as elections and debates. Real-time updates reflect the latest shifts in public opinion and political developments.

What is the significance of the next Prime Minister for Israel?

The next Prime Minister will have a profound impact on Israel's governance, security policies, and international relations. Their leadership will also influence the socio-economic landscape of the country.

What is "Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?" and why does it matter?

Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Naftali Bennett leads at 30% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Yair Lapid at 5%, Yariv Levin at 6%, Benny Gantz at 3%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?"?

Naftali Bennett currently leads at 30% implied probability. Behind Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid at 5% and Yariv Levin at 6% and Benny Gantz at 3% are the next closest contenders. The 11.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
The New York Times
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread11.5%
Platforms2
Candidates8
Leader

Naftali Bennett

30.3% avg

Market Rulebook: Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Naftali Bennett, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation.

Resolution Oracles
The New York Times
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?