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Live prediction market odds for Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt

Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?

2026-12-31

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the next new Prime Minister of Israel. This political contest is crucial as it will shape Israel's domestic and foreign policies amid ongoing regional tensions and economic challenges.

Benjamin Netanyahu leads the “Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel” event at 33.8% implied probability. Other contenders include Naftali Bennett (31.0%), Yair Lapid (3.0%), Yariv Levin (2.0%), and Itamar Ben Gvir (2.0%). A 15.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
BN
Benjamin Netanyahu
47% Avg
Polymarket42¢
PredictIt80¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
PolymarketPolymarket
41.5%41¢42¢58¢59¢
PredictItPredictIt
53.0%26¢80¢20¢74¢
NB
Naftali BennettARB
32% Avg
Kalshi40¢
Polymarket28¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
37.0%34¢40¢60¢66¢
PolymarketPolymarket
26.5%25¢28¢72¢75¢
YL
Yair LapidARB
3% Avg
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
4.0%3¢5¢95¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.0%2¢2¢98¢98¢
YL
Yariv LevinARB
2% Avg
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
3.5%3¢4¢96¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.0%1¢1¢99¢99¢
IB
Itamar Ben GvirARB
4% Avg
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
6.5%3¢10¢91¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.0%1¢1¢99¢99¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu is the current Prime Minister of Israel, serving his sixth term since December 2022. He previously held the position from 1996 to 1999 and from 2009 to 2021, making him Israel's longest-serving prime minister. His extensive experience and leadership in Israeli politics make him a central figure in discussions about Israel's future leadership.

Prediction Market Track Record

2025 Trump PardonLOSTPre-event: 50%Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025LOSTPre-event: 1%Maduro out in 2025?LOSTPre-event: 2%

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Odds are influenced by party popularity, polling data, and public sentiment. Additionally, recent political events and coalition dynamics play a significant role.

How often do the odds change for this political event?

Odds can fluctuate frequently, especially after major political announcements or events such as elections and debates. Real-time updates reflect the latest shifts in public opinion and political developments.

What is the significance of the next Prime Minister for Israel?

The next Prime Minister will have a profound impact on Israel's governance, security policies, and international relations. Their leadership will also influence the socio-economic landscape of the country.

What is "Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?" and why does it matter?

Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Benjamin Netanyahu leads at 34% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Naftali Bennett at 31%, Yair Lapid at 3%, Yariv Levin at 2%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?"?

Benjamin Netanyahu currently leads at 34% implied probability. Behind Benjamin Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett at 31% and Yair Lapid at 3% and Yariv Levin at 2% are the next closest contenders. The 15.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
The New York Times
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread15.5%
Platforms3
Candidates9
Leader

Benjamin Netanyahu

33.8% avg

Market Rulebook: Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Yair Lapid, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation.

Resolution Oracles
The New York Times

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

2025 Trump Pardon

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTBenjamin Netanyahu
Pre-event: 50%

Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTBenjamin Netanyahu
Pre-event: 1%

Maduro out in 2025?

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTBenjamin Netanyahu
Pre-event: 2%

#1 Searched Person on Google this year?

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTBenjamin Netanyahu
Pre-event: 1%

TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTBenjamin Netanyahu
Pre-event: 1%
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
#1 Searched Person on Google this year?
LOSTPre-event: 1%
TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?LOSTPre-event: 1%

About Naftali Bennett

Naftali Bennett is the leader of the political party Bennett 2026. He served as Israel's prime minister from June 2021 to June 2022. He is relevant to this prediction market as a potential candidate for the next prime minister of Israel.

About Yair Lapid

Yair Lapid is the Leader of the Opposition in Israel's Knesset. He served as Prime Minister from July to December 2022 and as Foreign Minister from 2021 to 2022. He is a central figure in Israeli politics, leading the centrist Yesh Atid party.

About Yossi Cohen

Yossi Cohen is the former Director of the Mossad, Israel's national intelligence agency, serving from 2016 to 2021. Prior to that, he was appointed National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2013. Cohen is relevant to this prediction market due to his recent public statements expressing interest in running for Prime Minister, indicating potential future political ambitions.