What are the current odds for "Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Nicolás Maduro: 58¢ on Kalshi, 51¢ on Polymarket. Donald Trump: 2¢ on Kalshi, 60¢ on Polymarket. Diosdado Cabello Rondón: 2¢ on Kalshi, 60¢ on Polymarket. Delcy Rodríguez: 27¢ on Kalshi, 33¢ on Polymarket. The 58.2% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Nicolás Maduro is at 54%?

A price of 54¢ means the market estimates a 54% probability that Nicolás Maduro will be the outcome. Buying one share at 54¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 85% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? | Live Odds Comparison

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About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026. The outcome will reflect the country's political stability and the direction of its governance amid ongoing economic challenges and international relations.

Nicolás Maduro leads the “Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026” event at 54.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Donald Trump (31.1%), Diosdado Cabello Rondón (30.9%), Delcy Rodríguez (29.8%), and Dinorah Figuera (25.4%). A 58.2% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms

Nicolás MaduroARB

54% Avg

58¢

51¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	57.5%	57¢	58¢	42¢	43¢
Polymarket	50.5%	50¢	51¢	49¢	50¢

Donald TrumpARB

31% Avg

3¢

70¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.5%	2¢	3¢	97¢	98¢
Polymarket	60.0%	50¢	70¢	30¢	50¢

Diosdado Cabello RondónARB

21% Avg

2¢

60¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.0%	2¢	2¢	98¢	98¢
Polymarket	40.0%	20¢	60¢	40¢	80¢

Delcy RodríguezARB

30% Avg

27¢

34¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	26.5%	26¢	27¢	73¢	74¢
Polymarket	33.0%	32¢	34¢	66¢	68¢

Dinorah FigueraARB

25% Avg

1¢

70¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	50.0%	30¢	70¢	30¢	70¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Diosdado Cabello Rondón

Diosdado Cabello is the current Minister of Interior, Justice, and Peace of Venezuela, appointed on August 27, 2024. He previously served as Vice President of Venezuela from 2002 to 2003 and as President of the National Assembly from 2012 to 2016. His current role places him at the forefront of Venezuela's internal security and justice system, making him a central figure in the country's political landscape.

About Delcy Rodríguez

Delcy Rodríguez is the acting president of Venezuela since January 2026. She served as vice president from 2018 to 2026 and as minister of petroleum from 2024 to 2026. Her current role is central to Venezuela's political future.

Prediction Market Track Record

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Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the leadership odds in Venezuela?

Factors include the current political climate, economic conditions, and international relations. Additionally, public sentiment and potential opposition movements play a crucial role.

How do prediction markets determine the likelihood of a leader in Venezuela?

Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants who speculate on future events, reflecting their expectations based on available information. The odds fluctuate as new developments occur in the political landscape.

What is the significance of leadership in Venezuela by 2026?

Leadership in Venezuela by 2026 will impact the country's governance, economic recovery, and social stability. The choice of leader could also influence foreign relations and investment opportunities.

What is "Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?" and why does it matter?

Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Nicolás Maduro leads at 54% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Donald Trump at 31%, Diosdado Cabello Rondón at 31%, Delcy Rodríguez at 30%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?"?

Nicolás Maduro currently leads at 54% implied probability. Behind Nicolás Maduro, Donald Trump at 31% and Diosdado Cabello Rondón at 31% and Delcy Rodríguez at 30% are the next closest contenders. The 58.2% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

Kalshi

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Market Rulebook: Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If María Corina Machado officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following: - María Corina Machado has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela - María Corina Machado is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela - María Corina Machado is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified) The following do **NOT** constitute "officially holding" the role: - Nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective - Appointed with an effective date *after* Dec 31, 2026 - Previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026 - Serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity - Named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed - Holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself

Resolution Oracles

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Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa. In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oracleun.orgConsensus of Sources

Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Diosdado Cabello Rondón

About Delcy Rodríguez

About Edmundo González

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Historical Track Record

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