What are the current odds for "TIME's Person of the Year for 2026?" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Alysa Liu: 1¢ on Kalshi, 93¢ on Polymarket. Pope Leo XIV: 20¢ on Kalshi, 94¢ on Polymarket. Péter Magyar: 3¢ on Kalshi, 92¢ on Polymarket. Taylor Swift: 3¢ on Kalshi, 90¢ on Polymarket. The 91.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Alysa Liu is at 47%?

A price of 47¢ means the market estimates a 47% probability that Alysa Liu will be the outcome. Buying one share at 47¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 113% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

TIME's Person of the Year for 2026? Odds

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TIME's Person of the Year for 2026? Odds — Pope Leo XIV 57¢

About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the selection of TIME's Person of the Year for 2026. This recognition often reflects significant cultural, political, or social influences, making it a focal point for public interest and speculation.

Alysa Liu leads the “TIME's Person of the Year for 2026” event at 46.8% implied probability. Other contenders include Pope Leo XIV (57.0%), Péter Magyar (47.5%), Taylor Swift (46.5%), and Zohran Mamdani (43.3%). A 91.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

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Live Markets

2 platforms

Alysa LiuARB

48% Avg

6¢

96¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	3.5%	1¢	6¢	94¢	99¢
Polymarket	92.5%	89¢	96¢	4¢	11¢

Pope Leo XIVARB

54% Avg

20¢

94¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	18.5%	17¢	20¢	80¢	83¢
Polymarket	89.5%	85¢	94¢	6¢	15¢

Péter MagyarARB

49% Avg

9¢

95¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	6.0%	3¢	9¢	91¢	97¢
Polymarket	92.0%	89¢	95¢	5¢	11¢

Taylor SwiftARB

47% Avg

6¢

95¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	4.5%	3¢	6¢	94¢	97¢
Polymarket	90.0%	85¢	95¢	5¢	15¢

Zohran MamdaniARB

43% Avg

20¢

94¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	19.0%	18¢	20¢	80¢	82¢
Polymarket	66.5%	39¢	94¢	6¢	61¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Pope Leo XIV

Pope Leo XIV is the current head of the Catholic Church and sovereign of Vatican City. Before his election in 2025, he served as Archbishop of Chiclayo in Peru and was a missionary there. His extensive international experience and leadership within the Augustinian order underscore his qualifications for the papacy.

Prediction Market Track Record

Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025WONPre-event: 99%#1 Searched Person on Google this year?LOSTPre-event: 1%TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?LOSTPre-event: 1%

Frequently Asked Questions

What criteria does TIME use to select its Person of the Year?

TIME selects its Person of the Year based on the individual's influence on the events of the year, whether positive or negative. The choice often highlights figures who have made significant impacts in politics, culture, or social movements.

How does public opinion influence the selection process?

Public opinion can shape the narrative around potential candidates, affecting their visibility and perceived relevance. Media coverage and social media discussions often play a crucial role in swaying public sentiment leading up to the announcement.

When is the announcement for TIME's Person of the Year typically made?

TIME usually announces its Person of the Year in early December each year. This timing allows for reflection on the year's events and the individuals who have shaped them.

What is "TIME's Person of the Year for 2026?" and why does it matter?

TIME's Person of the Year for 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Alysa Liu leads at 47% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Pope Leo XIV at 57%, Péter Magyar at 48%, Taylor Swift at 47%.

What is moving the odds on "TIME's Person of the Year for 2026?"?

Alysa Liu currently leads at 47% implied probability. Behind Alysa Liu, Pope Leo XIV at 57% and Péter Magyar at 48% and Taylor Swift at 47% are the next closest contenders. The 91.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Outcome

Amount

Max Price (opt)?

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi

Kalshi Rules

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Stats

Spread91.5%

Platforms2

Candidates18

Leader

Alysa Liu

46.8% avg

Market Rulebook: TIME's Person of the Year for 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Jeremy Hansen is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This will count towards the payout criterion: If multiple persons win, all persons that are listed are encompassed within the Payout Criterion. If, for example, the Person of the Year is “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, both “Joe Biden” and “Kamala Harris” strikes are encompassed within the Payout Criterion. The person must be explicitly named as the Person of the Year or pictured on the/a relevant cover if they are associated with the group/concept winning (the picture is only relevant for a natural human being winning). Some examples to illustrate this: “Jamal Khasogghi” would resolve to Yes in 2018, when “The Guardians” won, as he is also named and shown on a cover and falls within “The Guardians”. Similarly, “Bill Gates” would resolve to Yes in 2005. If Time uses language that does not specifically refer to a person or organization (examples being 2018’s “The Guardians of Truth” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), Kalshi will resolve markets to the most simple meaning reasonable. In those cases, “Journalists” and “the Me Too movement” would resolve to Yes. This does NOT count towards the payout criterion: If there is no Person of the Year (and instead many variations thereof, e.g. Entertainer of the Year, Hero of the Year), that is not encompassed in the Payout Criterion. If “ChatGPT” was the Person of the Year, strikes of “AI” or “LLMs” would resolve to No, since even if they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous (and thus are not explicitly named), and are not persons, so it would not matter if they were identified in the image. Or if “Sam Altman” was the Person of the Year, and the cover showed a person using ChatGPT on their computer, “ChatGPT” would not resolve to Yes because it is not a person.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

TIME's Person of the Year for 2026?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Pope Leo XIV

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: TIME's Person of the Year for 2026?

Historical Track Record

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#1 Searched Person on Google this year?

TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

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About Péter Magyar

About Taylor Swift

About Victor Glover

About Christina Koch

About Jeremy Hansen