What does it mean that Ed Sheeran is at 48%?

A price of 48¢ means the market estimates a 48% probability that Ed Sheeran will be the outcome. Buying one share at 48¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 108% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Who will perform at the FIFA World Cup final… Odds

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About This Market

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will perform at the FIFA World Cup final halftime show. The choice of performer can influence viewership and fan engagement, making it a key aspect of the event's entertainment value.

Ed Sheeran leads the “Who will perform at the FIFA World Cup final halftime show” event at 48.4% implied probability. Other contenders include Coldplay (54.0%), SZA (52.0%), Ozuna (51.7%), and Drake (51.6%). A 94.8% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

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Live Markets

2 platforms

Ed SheeranARB

50% Avg

7¢

97¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	4.0%	1¢	7¢	93¢	99¢
Polymarket	96.0%	95¢	97¢	3¢	6¢

Coldplay

56% Avg

61¢

59¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	58.0%	55¢	61¢	39¢	45¢
Polymarket	54.0%	49¢	59¢	41¢	51¢

SZAARB

51% Avg

5¢

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	3.0%	1¢	5¢	95¢	99¢
Polymarket	99.0%	98¢	100¢	0¢	2¢

OzunaARB

52% Avg

8¢

99¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	5.0%	2¢	8¢	92¢	98¢
Polymarket	98.0%	97¢	99¢	1¢	3¢

DrakeARB

52% Avg

6¢

100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	5.0%	4¢	6¢	94¢	96¢
Polymarket	98.5%	97¢	100¢	0¢	3¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Ed Sheeran

Ed Sheeran is a British singer-songwriter and record producer. He has sold over 200 million records worldwide, making him one of the world's best-selling music artists. He is known for his chart-topping singles and albums, including 'Shape of You' and 'Thinking Out Loud.'

Prediction Market Track Record

2025 Top Spotify ArtistLOSTPre-event: 50%Grammy Award for Song Of The Year in 2026?LOSTPre-event: 50%Who will perform at the Big Game?LOSTPre-event: 0%

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the choice of halftime show performers?

Factors include artist popularity, cultural relevance, and previous performance history. Additionally, the event's organizers may consider the target audience and current music trends.

How does the halftime show impact the overall World Cup final?

The halftime show serves as a major entertainment highlight, drawing in viewers who may not be regular football fans. It can enhance the overall atmosphere and experience of the event.

When is the FIFA World Cup final scheduled?

The FIFA World Cup final is scheduled for July 19, 2026. This date marks the culmination of the tournament, where the world's best teams compete for the championship.

What is "Who will perform at the FIFA World Cup final halftime show?" and why does it matter?

Who will perform at the FIFA World Cup final halftime show is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Ed Sheeran leads at 48% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Coldplay at 54%, SZA at 52%, Ozuna at 52%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will perform at the FIFA World Cup final halftime show?"?

Ed Sheeran currently leads at 48% implied probability. Behind Ed Sheeran, Coldplay at 54% and SZA at 52% and Ozuna at 52% are the next closest contenders. The 94.8% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Outcome

Amount

Max Price (opt)?

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi

Kalshi Rules

Read Full Market Rulebooks

Stats

Spread94.8%

Platforms2

Candidates35

Leader

Ed Sheeran

48.4% avg

Market Rulebook: Who will perform at the FIFA World Cup final halftime show?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Drake performs (or it is announced that they will perform at) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show during the official event timeframe, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

Additional clarification(s): Drake appears on stage or in the official broadcast or stream; AND Drake actively and perceptibly contributes to a musical performance by singing (including audible lead or backing vocals), rapping, playing a musical instrument, DJ-ing, or conducting a live band; AND Is either a scheduled performer, a guest appearance during another artist's set, or is formally announced as a performer by official event organizers or Drake's official representatives. Note: This Contract may resolve on the announcement of Drake’s anticipated performance at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show. If an announced Drake later withdraws from the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show, this will not affect the resolution of the Contract. The following constitutes a performance and IS encompassed by the Payout Criterion: A full solo performance of one or more songs. A collaborative or joint performance in which Drake is physically present and actively contributes musically. A guest appearance during another artist's set in which Drake performs at least one full verse, chorus, or musical segment. A medley in which Drake is present and actively performing, even if Drake's portion is partial. A performance in which Drake performs entirely via an officially produced and sanctioned satellite feed, video link, or holographic display that is presented as part of the official live event program, provided that the performance is real-time or was produced specifically for and presented exclusively within the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show. A DJ set in which Drake is the performing DJ operating equipment live, regardless of whether Drake sings. A pre-recorded performance segment presented as part of the official event program, provided it is attributed to Drake by the official event organizers and presented as a performance (rather than a tribute, retrospective, or archival clip). A performance that begins within the official event timeframe but extends beyond it due to scheduling overrun, provided the performance commenced during the official timeframe. A performance at a rescheduled version of the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show where the reschedule occurs within one year of the original event date, pursuant to the postponement provisions below.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Who will perform at the FIFA World Cup final halftime show?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Ed Sheeran

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Who will perform at the FIFA World Cup final halftime show?

Historical Track Record

2025 Top Spotify Artist

Grammy Award for Song Of The Year in 2026?

Who will perform at the Big Game?

Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Mar 2026?

Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025

#1 Searched Person on Google this year?

TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Grammys: Record of the Year Winner

Who will perform at the 2026 Grammys?

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